Yankees, Cardinals are obvious trade partners: Potential players, deals to monitor

For the first time in Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak’s 15-year tenure, his ballclub will sell at the trade deadline after what’s been a catastrophic season for St. Louis.

The Yankees, a team in desperate need of help, could use an everyday left fielder, another starting pitcher and a back-end bullpen arm or two. There are several holes that could be filled with current Cardinals players.

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These two teams have recent trade history, with the Yankees trading starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals for center fielder Harrison Bader last season. There’s trust between these two front offices as both Mozeliak and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman are the two longest-tenured heads of baseball operations in MLB and have made numerous deals with each other.

The Cardinals have several players the Yankees should be interested in ahead of the Aug. 1 deadline. The Athletic’s Cardinals writer Katie Woo and Yankees writer Chris Kirschner discuss the different players both teams could be interested in and what deals could work below.

Kirschner: Hey, Katie. Welcome to a conversation on two of the most disappointing teams in all of MLB. Obviously, the Cardinals are on a whole different planet in terms of disappointment, but the Yankees find themselves out of the playoffs right now and in last place in the American League East after an abysmal July that includes series losses to St. Louis, the Cubs, Rockies and Angels.

After Mozeliak’s recent comments on how the Cardinals “will trade some people,” it would make sense for the Yankees to inquire. I’ll start with this: Who do you think is truly available in a trade on the Cardinals’ side and what do you think St. Louis is looking for in return?

Woo: The Yankees sure seem like a logical trade partner for St. Louis. The Cardinals are looking to alleviate several position logjams on their roster. One area that’s impacted? You guessed it, the corner outfield.

The Cardinals have a slew of left-handed or switch-hitting outfielders, including Lars Nootbaar, Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson. But the club has expressed a preference to hang on to Nootbaar, and while Burleson’s contact-heavy offensive profile is alluring, he’s a bat-first outfielder and rather limited as a defender. Given New York’s defensive woes in the outfield, that’s likely not the type of player they’re scouting. Carlson is a plus defender and is under team control until 2027, but his splits are drastic. Carlson ended the first half hitting just .211/.311/.342 when batting left-handed, compared to a .291 average and .818 OPS when hitting right-handed.

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That leaves Brendan Donovan, who won a Gold Glove last year as a utility player, but has seen ample time playing both left and right field for St. Louis this season. He’s certainly a player the Cardinals would prefer to keep, but they might not have a choice. Because of Donovan’s versatility, remaining team control and his emerging left-handed power, St. Louis would covet at least one top prospect, if not two. The Cardinals direly need pitching, and their preference is talent that is close to being big-league ready. So, would the Yankees be willing to part with Randy Vásquez, Clayton Beeter or Missouri native Will Warren?

Kirschner: Donovan would be a phenomenal addition for the Yankees and the kind of player they should be all over if he’s gettable. It would cost a bit just because he’s a pre-arbitration player who’s had success in back-to-back seasons. But he’s worth it for what the Yankees need: Someone who can hit for average, get on base at a high clip and is a high-quality defender. I’m thinking the cost would likely start at something like starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who’s emerged over the past two months as one of the team’s best pitchers, and top outfield prospect Everson Pereira, who’s currently in Triple A. If that’s not enough, the Yankees could also throw in Beeter, who was acquired for Joey Gallo last season, or either Vásquez or Brito.

That might be enough for Donovan, and it’s something I’d do if I were Cashman. The Yankees desperately need more offense and a better defender, and they’d get it in Donovan.

Do you think this kind of structure would work for the Cardinals? You also mentioned Carlson struggling from the left side but nearly all of the Yankees’ outfielders, especially in left field, are also limited offensively. How do the Cardinals view him long term and what are your thoughts on how he’s performed?

Woo: It would take a haul for the Cardinals to even consider trading Donovan, but their dire need for pitching could win out. They’d be more inclined to move Carlson, which comes as a surprise given his standing in the organization last year. Carlson was deemed untouchable last trade deadline, but this year his role has been reduced to the team’s fourth outfielder.

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Carlson has had somewhat of a rocky season this year. A sprained ankle cost him nearly a month of games in the first half, but he’s shown no lingering signs of injury since. His playing time also resembles more of a platoon split, when in seasons prior he was used as a primary starter. It’s possible Carlson is simply the odd man out with Nootbaar’s emergence and top prospect Jordan Walker’s debut, but I’m of the belief Carlson should still be an everyday player. Carlson is exceptionally athletic and can play all three outfield positions with ease.

Kirschner: There’s no question Carlson could upgrade the Yankees’ defense, but his 2021 season when he had a .780 OPS seems like it’s more of an outlier than expected. Busch Stadium can tend to be more of a pitcher’s ballpark but Carlson is hitting slightly worse away from home. To me — depending on the cost — he’s not the best option, as the Yankees don’t need to add another light hitter to their lineup. But he also may just be a change-of-scenery guy who develops away from the Cardinals. His value seems low with his reduced role. It may just take two pitching prospects for him.

The Yankees would also be interested in Nootbaar. I know some fans would be interested in Nolan Arenado, but his contract — in both dollars and years — likely takes the Yankees out of the mix unless the Cardinals eat a good chunk of his future salary. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported how the team’s deadline plans “might” be influenced by getting under the fourth tax threshold. Cashman hasn’t mentioned third base being a need, either, but he has said that if they could get “an established everyday offensive contributor in left field” who can hit lefties and righties, that would be the ideal target. Nootbaar has been bad hitting against lefties this season but in his first two seasons, he was elite. What do you think of the Cards’ chances of trading Nootbaar, Arenado or even Paul Goldschmidt?

Woo: Slim to none. In a media session with local reporters on Monday, Mozeliak reiterated his intentions to field a competitive club come 2024. That would all but guarantee Goldschmidt and Arenado remain in St. Louis, and Mozeliak confirmed as much.

As for Nootbaar, the Cardinals truly don’t want to part with him and value him as a key member of their core going forward. It would take a significantly large package for St. Louis to consider trading him. But if the Yankees can compile the right combination of pitching prospects, Mozeliak might not have a choice. To put it simply: the Cardinals direly need young, controllable starting pitching that will be major-league ready (or close to ready) come spring. Whether or not a deal gets done here will depend on just how desperate both organizations become as the Aug. 1 deadline nears.

Kirschner: Given how awful the Yankees’ offense has been, I’d say they’re desperate to make something happen. They’re not going far if they keep the status quo past Aug. 1.

The Yankees gave up a bit of their organizational pitching depth last season, including Montgomery to St. Louis, but they do have two fringe major leaguers right now in Vásquez and Brito who could develop into more trusted starters with a bit more seasoning in the minors. We mentioned Beeter above and he would be an obvious target for St. Louis, as would Warren. Depending on the player, the Yankees may consider including Chase Hampton or Drew Thorpe, but they would like to hold on to them if they could.

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Cashman has said if he could bolster the rotation and back-end of the bullpen, he would consider a move there. Two guys who make sense for the Yankees are Jack Flaherty and Jordan Hicks. Neither has been great this season, but the Yankees’ pitching lab is elite and they frequently get the best out of their arms, especially in the bullpen. I know Mozeliak said he wants pitching but these guys could make sense for contending teams. Where do the Cards stand with them and how would you evaluate their seasons?

Woo: Flaherty and Hicks are logical trade pieces for the Cardinals, as both pitchers are set to be free agents for the first time in their careers at the end of the season. Both players got off to awful starts to the year, so their season stats won’t jump off the page. But both pitchers have really hit their stride over the last month. Flaherty has a 1.45 ERA over his last three starts and Hicks has converted eight saves in nine opportunities since taking over the closer’s role in mid-June.

The starting pitching market is thin once again this summer, meaning Flaherty’s value is currently at a high. By making Flaherty available, the Cardinals could maximize the return package, and the above proposal would surely be something the front office would be interested in. The same could be said for Hicks, whose triple-digit velocity and wipeout slider are massive pluses for any contending bullpen.

Given how drastically things need to change in St. Louis, I’d be surprised if either pitcher remains with the organization past the deadline. One can make the argument that since the Cardinals are so desperate for starting pitching, they should hold on to Flaherty and extend him at the end of the year. That may be something the front office is pondering, but given ownership’s spending history, it’s doubtful that would actually come to fruition. If the Yankees are looking for rentals, they should start with Hicks or Flaherty.

Kirschner: It’s going to be an interesting lead-up to the deadline for both of these teams. It feels like both franchises are kind of in limbo, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if they make a deal because of what each has to offer. My guess: Carlson is the likeliest of this group to join the Yankees. He’s cost-controlled and likely won’t cost a ton in prospect capital. He won’t move the needle much for the Yankees, but it can’t be worse than what they’ve displayed so far.

(Top photo of Dylan Carlson: G Fiume / Getty Images)

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